Taliban on the March: 70 miles from Islamabad

Getting Closer

Something has got to give, the various factions that make up Pakistan and the military need to prevent a militant take over or the situation will unravel. Its not hard to see it happening, it will start with the militants threatening the capital, then the conventional military will have a choice, fight, or let the Taliban take the country in exchange for the military keeping some its privileges. We really could end up with a Taliban state that combines an insurgent army, a conventional military and all of the hardware it has, an international terror group with Global Reach, and if that's not sunny enough, throw in atomic weapons plus the know how on making more.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Taliban militants have established control in the strategically important area of Buner, only 70 miles from the capital, law enforcement officials said Wednesday. The move is part of an unrelenting push by the Taliban toward the heart of Pakistan.

Heavily armed militants were patrolling villages and local police had retreated to their station houses in much of Buner, a rural area adjacent to Swat, where the Taliban seized control from the Pakistani army in February, they said. Buner is a gateway to a major Pakistani city, Mardan.

“They take over Buner, then they roll into Mardan and that’s the end of the game,” a senior law enforcement official in the North West Frontier Province said.

What's terrible is that the locals had chased off the Taliban last year, but the Pakistan cease fire with them in Swat last year gave the Taliban peace and breathing room for another invasion. If Pakistan becomes the hybrid monster of conventional, terror and nuclear weapons, motivated by religious fervor we could end up with a regional war. At the very least expect a massive inflow and possible invasion of Afghanistan as they secure Pakistan's Western border, then onto Kashmir and showdown with arch-rival India. Clinton has said that Pakistan is facing a "mortal" threat, but then again aren't we all? Of course enemies moving in on capitals seems to be happening a lot. For the Centcom statement on Pakistan, click here.

Update: On Pakistan's Nukes from Time:

The prospect of turmoil in Pakistan sends shivers up the spines of those U.S. officials charged with keeping tabs on foreign nuclear weapons. Pakistan is thought to possess about 100 — the U.S. isn't sure of the total, and may not know where all of them are. Still, if Pakistan collapses, the U.S. military is primed to enter the country and secure as many of those weapons as it can, according to U.S. officials.

The U.S. has been keeping a watchful eye on Pakistan's nukes since it first detonated a series of devices a decade ago. "Pakistan has taken important steps to safeguard its nuclear weapons, although vulnerabilities still exist," Army General Michael Maples, chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last month. Then, he immediately turned to the threat posed by al-Qaeda, which, along with the Taliban, is sowing unrest in Pakistan. "Al-Qaeda continues efforts to acquire chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear materials," he said, "and would not hesitate to use such weapons if the group develops sufficient capabilities."

Read the rest of the article, as of now there are plenty of safeguards, of course all bets are off if things fly out of control.