Obama Reviving Military Tribunals in Gitmo

This is a good thing and his pledge at the beginning of the term was clearly fodder for the netroots and to buy him some time. The most likely scenario in closing down the prison involved these options:

• Send them to their Home countries.
• Send them to Europe.
• Send them to American Prisons.
• Keep them in Gitmo.

Each option provides rewards and pitfalls, for example sending to them their home countries is problematic to say the least. On the one hand they might go right back to the battlefield, on the other extreme their home countries may kill them outright. Europe, despite "Obama" love has been reluctant to provide tangible assistance to the President. Sending them to American prisons is an option, but once again the NIMBY syndrome and the fear of terror attacks make this unpalatable to many. This leaves us with the last option of keeping Gitmo open to hold trials, those found guilty face punishment and those cleared could be released. (Where they would do prison sentences is another issue, of course the death penalty could be carried out in Gitmo) I fully expect some combination of all these options to be the final outcome. Reality is hard, no matter what the left and Obama pretend.

From the NY Times:

The Obama administration is moving toward reviving the military commission system for prosecuting Guantánamo detainees, which was a target of critics during the Bush administration, including Mr. Obama himself.

And how soon could this happen? Pretty damn soon:

Officials said the first public moves could come as soon as next week, perhaps in filings to military judges at the United States naval base at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, outlining an administration plan to amend the Bush administration’s system to provide more legal protections for terrorism suspects.Continuing the military commissions in any form would probably prompt sharp criticism from human rights groups as well as some of Mr. Obama’s political allies because the troubled system became an emblem of the effort to use Guantánamo to avoid the American legal system.Officials who work on the Guantánamo issue say administration lawyers have become concerned that they would face significant obstacles to trying some terrorism suspects in federal courts. Judges might make it difficult to prosecute detainees who were subjected to brutal treatment or for prosecutors to use hearsay evidence gathered by intelligence agencies.

Why now? According to the report the more they looked at the situation the greater the appeal of the Tribunal system. In other words they recognized why Bush was pushing them all along.

But in recent days a variety of officials involved in the deliberations say that after administration lawyers examined many of the cases, the mood shifted toward using military commissions to prosecute some detainees, perhaps including those charged with coordinating the Sept. 11 attacks.“The more they look at it,” said one official, “the more commissions don’t look as bad as they did on Jan. 20.”

Several officials insisted on anonymity because the administration has directed that no one publicly discuss the deliberations.

"The more commissions don’t look as bad as they did on Jan. 20.” That could be line of the decade for Democrats now that they are in power. Of course candidate Obama attacked the system:

Still, during the presidential campaign Mr. Obama criticized the commissions, saying that “by any measure our system of trying detainees has been an enormous failure,” and declaring that as president he would “reject the Military Commissions Act.”

Oh netroots, where are you now? So why the Trial Balloon, no doubt the admin is softening the blow and prepping its base to accept the President's decision, how many heads explode over this should be interesting to watch:

Human rights groups said Friday that using any form of military commission would be seen as permitting shortcuts that would not be available in existing American courts.Anthony D. Romero, the executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union, said that Mr. Obama had pledged to return the country to the rule of law and that “continuing with the military commission system would be a retreat from that promise.”

Gabor Rona, the international legal director of Human Rights First, said military commissions would only be necessary if the administration wanted to assure convictions that might not otherwise be certain.“The administration is making a huge mistake,” Mr. Rona said, “if they believe getting convictions through suspect methods is more valuable than letting justice take its course.”

As of now details are sketchy, but I would bet KSM among others will be the top of the list for the revived tribunals.

I suspect Polls like this from Rassmussen had a role in the decision.

Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
April 1-2, 2009

Should Guantanamo inmates be released in the United States?
Yes	13%
No	75%
Not sure	12%

I wonder if this decision will be part of the next 100 days celebration.

Coincidence?