The Waning Influence of Chavez

Chavez has been a disaster and his vain glorious attempts to re create a Bolivaran revolution have fallen flat. His continued theft of private property to feed the machine that keeps him in power is going to eventually run of victims to steal from. Of course he will have to choose between moderating his madness or further oppression, expect oppression.

CARACAS — President Hugo Chávez’s push to extend his sway in Latin America is waning amid low oil prices and disorder in Venezuela’s own energy industry.

In recent years, Mr. Chávez has used his nation’s oil wealth to drive his socialist-inspired agenda at home and draw other countries in the region into his sphere of influence, helping to consolidate a leftward political shift in parts of Latin America.

But more than a dozen big projects intended to broaden his nation’s reach are in limbo — including a gas pipeline across the continent and at least eight refineries, from Jamaica to Uruguay — as Venezuela grapples with falling revenues and other troubles in its national oil company.

Venezuela is also cutting back sharply on other types of financial support for its neighbors, a cornerstone of its regional influence. One recent study by the Center of Economic Investigations, a financial consulting firm here, found that Venezuela had announced plans to spend only about $6 billion abroad this year, down from $79 billion in 2008.

That includes proposed spending on everything from military purchases to aid, and points to a major weakening of Mr. Chávez’s oil diplomacy. Gone, for instance, are multibillion-dollar outlays to buy Argentine bonds, replaced by modest loans like $9 million for growing rice in Haiti.

Now countries that have been dependent on Venezuelan aid are turning elsewhere. Argentina locked in a $10 billion deal with China to help it buy Chinese imports, while Ecuador, a close ally of Venezuela, is rekindling ties to the International Monetary Fund, the kind of Western-dominated institution that Mr. Chávez scorns.

Some Venezuelan allies even appear to be warming to the Obama administration, sometimes in areas like military training. This month, President Rafael Correa of Ecuador sent a personal pilot to study at the Air War College in Montgomery, Ala.

Cuba, too, is cautiously opening the door to improving ties with Washington, while trying to attract investment from Brazil, potentially reducing its reliance on Venezuela.

Being a thug with no check on his power, expect even more irrational and bizarre behaviour from Chavez as he finds himself isolated and with enemies emboldened. Latin America has been down this road before and this ends badly.