The Economist on Successful Revolutions

The Economist has superb pieces on events in Iran, in addition one of their bloggers has posted what it takes for a successful revolution, via Bagehot:

1. —Critical mass: 5,000-10,000 people can be beaten up or arrested; 500,000 can't be. Opposition leaders need to get big numbers out on the streets, and then keep them there, using interim goals and incentives to maintain interest and morale
2. —Weak or divided security services
3. —At least some independent media
4. —Money, which in turn means an economy with various and competing concentrations of wealth and power
5. —Serious corruption—generally the main mass motivator
6. —It helps if the opposition leaders have had a stint in government, perhaps during a relatively liberal phase, enabling them to raise their profiles (as both Mikhail Saakashvili and Viktor Yushchenko did)
7. —History: it often seems to be the case that opposition movements have a go at ousting a nasty regime, fail, but then re-group, learn their lessons, perhaps seek help from outside, and finish the job a few years later
8. —Strong support for the opposition in the capital city
9. —A rigged election, providing a peg for pre-existing grievances and a clear opposition agenda

I would have added divisions in the ruling class as well the loss in their confidence to rule.