Thursday, October 14, 2010

Reuters: GOP Likely to Take House

I would counsel cautious optimism:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - American voters unhappy at high unemployment are set to oust President Barack Obama's Democrats from control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November 2 elections, a Reuters-Ipsos poll projected on Wednesday.


The national poll found that Americans plan to vote for Republicans over Democratic candidates by 48 percent to 44 percent, an edge that will likely give Republicans dozens of seats in the House and big gains in the Senate.


The poll numbers suggest Republicans would win around 227 seats in the House to 208 for the Democrats, Ipsos pollster Cliff Young said. In the Senate, the poll indicates Democrats would retain control but with a smaller, 52-to-48 seat margin.


Yes the polling has been pretty good and even a look at some of the internal district polls has shown incumbent Dems in serious trouble (but not all of them). As for the Senate, taking that "venerable" body has always been a longshot and remains to be. This does not trouble me and for the record I am still skeptical of the massive wave in November. I am banking on solid gains that might even mean a turnover in the house. Understand I am not a pessimist, but there are so many Democratic seats and the power of incumbents so great that to knock off over 39 would be an incredible achievement.


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